In our last edition (HH No. 8) we promised to remind readers of our "efficiency scale" and show how it can be applied to our current topic.
Actually this scale (discussed in HH No. 5) was no more than a standard one could use to gauge the overall ability of a jockey or trainer.
Overall Win % |
Rating |
20% plus |
Super |
16%-19% |
Very good |
10-15% |
Average to good average |
Below 10% |
Be careful |
We mentioned further that similar evaluations could be used in
the analysis of statistics i.e., the breaking down of raw figures into more
meaningful data. So - with that preamble let�s get down to business and
find out what we�re actually talking about.
I recently had occasion to review some Equibase stats
(https://www.equibase.com) given for the January 1st through May 2nd, 1999 Aqueduct
meeting. I thought that an analysis of these raw figures might prove
enlightening.
Juan Serey, for example, was the trainer with most wins;
32/147 = 21%, and 61/147 placed. His place horses nearly equalled the number
of his wins. This is excellent, particularly when one considers the number
of horses involved. It also indicates that Serey�s entries should be given
serious consideration when an exacta key, or place bet is contemplated.
On the other hand Dick Dutrow, Jr. was the leading trainer,
percentagewise, with 17 /50 wins = 34%. This is pretty darn good, but the
question arises could this ratio be maintained if he had run the number of
horses Serey ran? The point being that a trainer's or jockey�s volume
should be considered when his or her record is being evaluated.
Dutrow�s record is particularly interesting inasmuch as it shows
that only three additional horses finished second, bringing his place
showing up to 20/50 equaling only a 40% second-place finish average. This is
very low. It represents only about 15% of his win average. Compare to
Serey�s 41% place average which is 93% of his win average. Dutrow�s place
average is so low in fact that we suspect it might be the effect of a
typographical error. However, assuming it to be correct, ask yourself which
trainer�s horses would give you your best shot when used as a key in an
exacta?
There�s also another way to evaluate raw stats as frequently
presented in various racing publications. The Running Horse, for example,
gives NATIONAL trainer-jockey stats for all of 1998. But, let�s stick to our
Equibase Aqueduct figures. There were 20 trainers listed. Combined they
entered 1,726 horses and won with 328. This is an overall average of 19%
which now provides a valid standard by which we can reasonably judge an
individual�s performance. However, keep in mind that VOLUME is an important
influence. Trainer A who runs 400 horses and scores with 16% might well be
evincing a performance record superior to Trainer B who runs only 20 horses
and wins with 25%.
It looks as if we�ve run out of space at this point, so we�ll
continue this topic in our next edition.
( Don�t miss No. 10 of Handicapping Hints due on or about
August 1st)
Visit the How To Win At Thoroughbred Racing Web site
|