T
he June 1st edition (No. Six) of Handicapping Hints subjected favorites, selected by the Racing Form�s Andy Beyer�s speed figures, to close scrutiny and determined they had merit. Overall they produced more winners and showed less loss than favorites generally.
In the following we�ll compare the public choices that were NOT Beyer�s
selections with the results achieved by the group representing the
Beyer-selected favorites. First, however, let�s see how our overall group of
1,255 favorites (used for this analysis) did. This will provide a reasonable
standard for evaluating the performance of either of its two components i.e.,
by comparing its stats with those of the overall group.
STATISTICS FOR THE OVERALL GROUP
474 winners/1,255 plays = 37%
X $2 per theoretical bet
$2,510 invested
$2,287 returned
$ 223 win loss - 8%
Average win mutuel $4.82
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These favorite figures are much superior to those of favorites generally.
This could be accounted for by the relatively few races used for this test OR
possibly could be attributed to fact that TURF races were not included.
Nonetheless they provide us with a standard for comparing the performance of
the two units that comprised these overall statistics.
It was previously noted that the Beyer favorites, with a 40% win average,
and only a 13% flat bet loss was good compared to results generally achieved by
the public�s post-time choices (approximately 34% wins and a l6% loss). Let�s
now look at the second half of our larger group; the non-Beyer favorites. In
other words let�s see how the public fared when left to its own devices without
being influenced by the published speed ratings. We�ll see how the non-Beyer
favorites fared when compared with the Beyer post-time choices.
PERFORMANCE OF NON-BEYER FAVORITES
217/608 won = 32%
X $2
$1,216 invested
$1,109 returned
$ 107 loss = 9%
Average mutuel $5.11
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The 32% win average is quite a bit below the 40% Beyer success rate, but
the average win mutuel payoff of $5.11 more than compensates. Beyer favorites
showed a 13% flat win bet loss.
Our conclusion would be that the Beyer figures performed well
percentagewise, but appear to be over bet by the public. Although, at a 40% win
rate they could well be preferred favorites to use as keys in exactas.
Two factors may have had an influence on the results obtained:
1. We excluded turf races
2.In a number of cases there were ties with the Beyer ratings.
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In retrospect we realize our survey would have been improved had we
eliminated those races wherein there were top-rated ties. Additionally, when
opportunity affords we�d like to check out the performance stats for turf
races. Do favorites in these events perform so poorly that they drag down the
overall win percentages?
This is a great game. One no sooner resolves one question than another
rears its ugly head.
Don�t miss HANDICAPPING HINTS NO. 8 due on or about July 1st
Visit the How To Win At Thoroughbred Racing Web site
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