by Robert V. Rowe |
If one were to use the current crop of "know how" racing books and articles as a criterion, it would appear that two formidable weapons are missing from the contemporary handicapper�s arsenal. I note an emphasis on pace, final times, weight, trainers, distance and condition, etc., but cannot recall seeing either of the following two big guns even mentioned � at least not within the last decade.
Back in the mid-Forties a lawyer named Robert Saunders Dowst wrote a book titled Win, Place and Show. He also wrote a series of articles for Esquire magazine. The gist of both, the book and his articles, had to do with consistency. Dowst rightfully contended that unless a horse�s performance is consistent nothing else matters. Of course, like practically everything involved in handicapping, this too can get a bit sticky. Verifying consistency is not simply a matter of checking a horse�s race record. It�s a matter of checking the TYPE race wherein it is consistent, and checking the trainer�s record to see how consistent he is in placing his charge where it belongs. Obviously a $10,000 plater is not going to fare well when pitched against $25,000 horses. In circumstances such as this allowance must be made. This is the type analysis called for, and is the area where one can separate the men from the boys; the expert handicapper as opposed to the would-be handicapper. The first step involved in analyzing consistency is having the knowledge to recognize that it exists as a factor. Obviously if one hasn�t the awareness that consistency is a major handicapping problem, an analysis can�t take place. The second step is to have the ability to correctly interpret a horse�s record of consistency. Good race horses, like their human athlete counterparts, are consistently good within their own class. Tiger Woods, for example, doesn�t play golf like a champ one day, and then play like a duffer next time out. Our second factor is the Daily Double. With most players concentrating on more exotic type plays, the DD too frequently gets overlooked. This, despite the fact it offers one of the true bargains in the entire parimutuel set-up. It literally cuts the "take and breakage" in half, and permits the player to make two bets at the cost of paying only once. It�s sort of like those department store signs that proclaim, "Buy one and get a second one free." Your scribe�s favorite play with the DD is to concentrate on selecting a strong key horse in the first half and hooking it up with two selections in the second half. Why? Being a timid soul I just like the idea that once I get the first selection home I now have a double shot (literally) at cashing a bet. The other way around would not provide the same assurance. There�s still another ingredient that goes along with Daily Double play on the first two races. It prevents the player from getting too involved financially at the beginning of the day. This applies particularly if his/her first horse wins. The player can afford to sit back, relax and wait for the result of the second half. If he wins it�s great. If he loses he�s still not too involved and hopefully maintains a clear head for the rest of the card (which might not be the case if he had blown a bundle on the day�s early races).
Best wishes for a healthy and happy New Year. Look for HH NO. 21 to appear on or about Jan. 15th
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