Over the years your scribe has tried frequently and valiantly to make the point that playing long shots as a steady diet is akin to committing financial harikari.This is not to say that one should confine play only to favorites or short-priced horses. There are many occasions when a 5/1 or 7/1 shot is a good play.

However, if you keep records and note that your betting choices are AVERAGING 9/2 or better I strongly suggest reviewing your handicapping procedures because you'll be bucking a losing game.

It is this race player�s opinion, generally speaking, that the favorite is the key to successful handicapping. There are "good" and "bad" favorites. If one can learn to differentiate between the two s/he is well on the way to racing profits. This applies whether one is a devotee of straight betting or is hooked on exactas. The favorite remains the key inasmuch as one can select against a bad favorite, and either play or lay off a race with a legitimate favorite.

Personally I wouldn�t consider an exacta or making an exacta box without using the chalk as a key ingredient. I�d rather pass the race. The percentages are too great that the favorite will run either first or second (more than 50% of the time). Example: If I chose to invest $12 on an exacta race it would be as follows:

Favorite boxed with my second, third and fourth choices. On a $2.00 mutuel basis this would involve three boxes at a total cost of twelve dollars.

The foregoing approach as opposed to the following option: Example: A 3-horse box that combines Horse A with Favorite. Horse B with Favorite. And Horse A combined with B. This at a cost of the same twelve dollars. Sure! There will be rare occasions when A and B will combine for a good priced payoff, and you�ll kick yourself for not having boxed them. But - if you keep records you�ll find you�re still far ahead of the game by employing our first strategy. Not only that but you�ll be cashing more bets. And - that's always good for morale. No one should expect to cash every bet. Why try?

Please understand, we�re talking about SELECTIVE favorites as keys, not indiscriminate play. If a favorite looks weak don�t play an exacta. Your best bet is a straight play win or place against the chalk. If the favorites is really weak a solid place bet on your selection could prove the bargain of the day. This , of course, only when convinced the favorite is such a poor public choice that s/he probably won�t even get second.

The problem here is that most selectors rely on their opinion to differentiate between good and bad favorites. In our next issue we�ll suggest a couple of ways to OBJECTIVELY determine which favorites should be given serious consideration, and which can reasonably be selected against.

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