HANDICAPPING HINTS #16
by
Robert V. Rowe

 

Nov. 1, 1999

Index
 

 

Like Rome, the structure of racing wasn�t built in a day. Neither was it conceived by one man. Racing�s basic concept is intricate and extremely clever; the result of cumulative findings and corrections that developed over a period of many years.

The start of modern thoroughbred racing goes back to the middle of the 19th century when a knowledgeable Englishman named John Francis Rouse conceived "The Scale of Weights." The intent of this device was to equalize, at least in theory, the chances of all horses by making weight allowances for age, sex and distances being run.

With more than reasonable consistency it serves the purpose. It keeps horses of varying abilities within their proper niche i.e., maidens run against maidens; 2-and 3-year-olds compete in their rightful age bracket, etc. Other factors, however, are also considered by the track handicapper when he writes his Condition Book.Example: Amounts of previous purse money that has been won.

The basics of the weight scale, in modified form, are used today by the track secretary/handicapper at each race track. It is the plinth stone that he works from when making up his Condition Book for each meet. This Condition Book is frequently referred to as "The Horseman�s Bible," and with good reason. Without this book a trainer would not know in what race he could advantageously or even logically place his horse. It also can be the tip off to handicappers as to a trainer�s intentions. The fan should study the conditions involved in each race just as assiduously as the horseman must.

A reading of each race�s conditions, and a brief analysis of those conditions should enable the bettor to quickly decide if an animal is or is not well placed. An obvious example: If a race�s condition reads, "For non-winners of two since February first," and Horse A hasn�t won even one race since February first, it certainly is not well placed, and would indicate the trainer is either incompetent or (more likely) not seriously concerned about winning.

A trainer�s intentions can frequently be guessed at by noting slightly more subtle facts. Example: Horse B, according to the various conditions involved, should be getting 12 pounds off scale weight. The trainer fails to take full advantage of his horse�s rightful allowances. Maybe the apprentice being used should be getting a five-pound allowance and the trainer is only taking a three-pound "bug" allowance. This means the animal is carrying 14 pounds instead of only twelve.

Common sense would dictate that this mere two pound variation is unlikely to make much difference to a 1,200 pound athlete (horse) that usually competes only when it is in superb physical condition. Nonetheless, the conditioner�s seeming lack of concern in failing to take every possible advantage, could well indicate the stable�s intention.

Horsemen tend to be a superstitious lot and deeply imbedded in their psyche is the concept of advantageous weight allowances. When such allowances are not taken advantage of it should serve as a red flag, a warning to, "Be careful."

Our next Handicapping Hints will discuss the frequently difficult job that the track�s secretary/handicapper has in making up his condition book, and why he often is the key to a successful or unsuccessful race meet.

(No. 17 of HANDICAPPING HINTS should appear on or about November 15th)

 

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