HANDICAPPING HINTS #10
by
Robert V. Rowe

 

August 1, 1999

 

 

Last edition of HH concerned ways and means for one to get below the surface when attempting to evaluate racetrack statistics. We�d like to add a footnote to that edition, and mention that, in our opinion, Pat Day is one of the most extraordinarily consistent jockeys we�ve ever observed. Year after year this man ( who is no youngster by any standards) rides a cavalcade of horses, and year after year manages to boot home a percentage figure that�s never too far from the 20 range. This is a remarkable feat.

It�s also of major interest to note that he rarely wins with a front-running ride. Patience seems to be Pat�s forte. The point being that a major factor in successful handicapping is familiarizing one�s self with a horseman�s strong points i.e., the area in which a jockey or trainer appears to specialize, and in which he or she performs best.

This requires study but is well worth the effort. An Outstanding Example: Going back a few years to the time when Oscar Barrera was performing his "miracles" by haltering multitudes of cheap platers and seemingly, overnight, turning them into near-champions, we uncovered an interesting fact via close study of Oscar�s record. Your scribe doesn�t have the exact figures at hand, but the approximations presented are accurate. Oscar had been running about 400 horses per year. His winning percentages consistently hovered around 16, a truly remarkable feat; particularly when one considers the questionable quality of the equines involved.

However, a breakdown of his entries revealed a rather startling situation. Despite the considerable numbers involved he didn�t win a single turf race. Obviously Oscar was using grass to condition his horses and was making little effort to win purses when on the green. But, the many fans who only knew about his highly-publicized miracles would unknowingly throw money away by betting Barrera�s turf mounts.

It�s important also to familiarize oneself with a jockey�s best riding style. Keep in mind that a jock frequently has little say about the mount he gets. In consequence he often is obliged to ride a horse he is not suited for. Maybe he owes the trainer a favor. Or -- maybe the agent knows that if he wants to get the "pick of the litter" when the next opportunity arises, he�s also going to have to accept lesser mounts in the interim. These are the times when the informed player lays off..

It�s of mild interest to note that whatever Oscar Barrera�s secret was he didn�t pass it on to Oscar Junior who, after Senior�s demise, tried his hand at training, with something less than outstanding success. I've often thought that a biography of Oscar�s career could provide fascinating reading for the racing fan, if written by a competent investigative reporter.

Jose Santos provides another outstanding example of why it pays to study a jockey or trainer�s specialized abilities. Santos appears to have two characteristics. He�s at his best coming off the pace , and excels as a turf rider. Why then would any knowledgeable puntere wager on him if he�s booting a chronic front-runner, particularly on dirt?

Your scribe has closely observed the accomplishments of many apprentices who have appeared on to the New York circuit and, aside from a once-in-a-lifetime happening like "The Kid," they rarely do well in routes. This fact probably has more to do with trainers� attitudes than with the a youngster�s innate abilities. I checked the record of one popular apprentice about three or four years back and from a total of 67 winners only three were gained in routes.

Our next Handicapping Hints (No 11) should make its appearance on or about August 15th.

 

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