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by Robert V. Rowe |
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In two previous columns we aimed at showing a thoroughbreds progress from "kindergarten to (in some cases) getting its doctorate." In other words we wanted to draw the readers� attention to what should be the normal progress for a thoroughbred to take from its 2-year-old maiden special weights debut up to stake and classic races. The objective in this approach was to emphasize how important it is to study the conditions of each race, and to emphasize that the selector must study them assiduously. Many writers state how important it is to study the conditions but fail to tell the reader what exactly should be looked for. Simplified it would be this scribe�s suggestion to look closely for the UNUSUAL. Horses running back repeatedly against the same types as previously do not offer much encouragement. Example: Hamburg Joe running for the fourth time against non-winners of one other than maidens or claimers does not bode well if the aim is to cash a bet.. On the other hand the horse Could Be is a multi-winner in sprints and today is entered at a mile-and-a-sixteenth against non-winners of one at a route, look close. Most of the entrants are probably just winners of a single maiden race. The chances are that Could Be, a proven multi-winner, is capable of going a route against this mediocre bunch. A negative type example to look for (and one more common than one might assume) is where the trainer fails to take full advantage of weight allowances. He or she possibly could have gained an extra three pounds off by taking the apprentice allowance for having a bug boy up, but failed to do so. Such an oversight might well indicate a lack of optimism relative to winning any part of the purse. Trainers are a superstitious lot and are firm believers in the advantages of weight off. When they fail in trying to benefit from this factor it probably means they think little of their charge�s chance. These are fairly obvious examples but serve to make the point that one should seek out both the negative and positive and pay less attention to those horses that are simply running back under the same conditions as in previous failed efforts. It doesn�t require much consideration to run a maiden back in the same type $25,000 maiden claimer where it ran several times before. On the other hand if you note the horse has been dropped into a "top and bottom" $20,000 to $18,000 race and is entered at the top value, it could well warrant consideration. Such a situation would suggest that the horse's connections gave the move serious consideration and have hopes of garnering some share of the purse. We'll get back to this important subject at a later date, but for the next few columns we'd like to give the reader the benefit of our experience in seeking a satisfactory place on the web to wager (assuming that such exists). We previously tried the Canadian Woodbine situation and found it less than satisfying.What we are looking for is a site that will allow us to not only bet, but to view the races as well.In other words we want all the conveniences of an OTB but from the comfort of home. We don't know if such exists but we'll convey our experience. Meanwhile, if any reader knows how to access such a web site we'd be more than pleased to learn about it. This information would be appreciated and can be e-mailed to [email protected]. Look for HH #27 to appear on or about April 30th.
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