My oldest son and I are contemplating a trip to New York toward the end of February. More precisely our intent is to attend Aqueduct race track for a couple of days. I haven�t been to a New York track for 3-1/2 years and, until now, hadn�t realized how unfamiliar I was with many of the horsemen�s names involved. This is accounted for by the fact that during winter racing many NY regulars go to Florida, and there�s an annual New York influx of new faces and names.

Here in Mass., the best I can manage, on a daily basis and, admittedly, with the least effort, is to check out New York race results (just results- no charts) via the Boston Globe. This provides only the barest of information, and made me realize I knew little of the capabilities of at least half of the horsemen whose names were involved (trainers and jockeys).

To alleviate this condition I started checking statistics provided by The Running Horse. I was impressed with what I found. I hadn�t fully realized the plethora of information that this site provides. My guess would be that web master, Al Lauck, in conjunction with Equibase, has succeeded in assembling the most extensive array of thoroughbred racing data available anywhere, from any other single source. This applies not only to Aqueduct data but to racing in general.

In my case and prior to attending the track I considered it provident to familiarize myself statistically with what's going on at Aqueduct. Who's winning ? Who is not? This, to my mind, is vital information. For example; if I contemplated betting an exacta I�d like to know which trainers and which jockeys consistently do well in the second slot even when they don�t win. It�s reassuring to feel that one�s selection will be trying as hard to get second money as to win. Too many horsemen subscribe to the concept that if you can�t win , save the horse. "There�s always another day." This may be good horsemanship, but doesn�t bode well for an exacta player's bankroll. To gain the type information I require necessitates an analysis of the stats usually available.

In one of last year�s columns, I recall, we went through a similar process to see what could be gleaned by studying a few basic statistics. To accomplish this we used The Running Horse�s link to Aqueduct and took advantage of Equibase�s jockey and trainer stats. We�ll repeat the performance.Bear in mind that similar information is available for other tracks.

Starting December 1st and continuing through January 30th, 2,000 Aaron Gryder, with 250 starts and 51 wins is the leading rider. This rates as 20% wins which is excellent. His score for place finishes however is only 33. We�d prefer his place finishes to be closer to the 51 wins. There�s nothing wrong with Gryder�s accomplishments, but in comparison Joe Bravo, with 38/73 wins finished in the second slot 35 times (73/229). The fact that he consistently finished second almost as frequently as he won would serve to provide this bettor with confidence if using his mount as an exacta key.

Shaun Bridgmohan�s record is another that would inspire confidence. His winning record is only 31/251 (12%) but he wound up in the second hole 39 times. Can there be any question about his desire to get any part of the purse that he possibly can? In contrast Cornelio H. Velasquez did well on the win end by scoring l5 times out of 84 tries, but with only eight successes in the second slot I would not be inclined to use him in exactas. To emphasize the point: I like to see my key horses ridden by jockeys who seem to want to save the second slot as much as they want to gain the win purse.

The same reasoning applies to conditioners. Based on current accomplishments, I would hesitate to use one of Joe Orseno�s entries as an exacta key despite the fact he�s Aqueduct�s leading trainer with 16 wins out of 60 starts. In contrast to his win record he shows only eight seconds (merely one-half of his win scores).

In contrast we have Juan Serey who, as usual, is doing well at Aqueduct. He scored with 10 wins out of 57 starts for 17% which is very good, but his record for place is more impressive with 13 place finishes providing a 40% place average overall.

The foregoing is offered as one way to analyze performance, and as an approach to exacta play. The concept, of course, can be used on any circuit.

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