By ED GOLDEN

Laffit Pincay Jr., who has been riding since 1964, is within some 266 victories of Bill Shoemaker�s career record of 8,833.

Russell Baze, who began riding in 1974, was zeroing in on career win No. 6,000 even as we speak, and was some 2,500 behind Pincay.

But Baze could pass both Pincay and Shoe if he maintains his present pace, which has been winning at least 400 victories each of the last six years. To do that, Baze would have to outride Pincay about 10-1, no simple feat.

"Russell�s as good a rider as ever�s come to Northern California," said Ellis Davis, an acute observer of that scene and an agent on that circuit for the last 10 years. Davis also lends his varied talents to the Daily Racing Form.

"Baze is consistent, he�s classy and he gives 100 percent every time he goes out on the track, and that�s unparalleled," said Davis. "If he stays unhurt and if (perennial Northern California training leader) Jerry Hollendorfer stays in Northern California -- because Baze rides the bulk of his horses -- Russell will continue to win 400 or more every year.

"And if he continues at that pace, in about seven more years, he�ll surpass Shoemaker�s record. And I think he�ll go by the record before Pincay, because of that consistency. Not only that, I think Baze could reach 9,000 wins."

Who�s to argue? Pincay, who will be 51 on Dec. 29, had only three wins at the current Hollywood Park session and only 69 this year through Nov. 30.

At that pace, Pincay would need four more years to near Shoe�s record. But his mounts don�t figure to increase on the highly competitive Southern California circuit. Which is why Pincay says he will decide near the first of the year whether to shift his tack full time to Northern California or Emerald Downs in Washington. On a test run, Pincay rode nine horses at Golden Gate last Friday and Saturday, winning twice, equaling his victory total for the recent 27-day Oak Tree meeting. Pincay�s Northern California business is handled by O.J. Jauregui, the brother of jockey Luis Jauregui.

Pincay said if he does leave Southern California, he likely will go to the Bay Area and not Washington, because "they race more there, five or six days a week. In Washington, I believe they only race three days a week."

Baze is a big fish in a small pond, winning the vast majority of his races at Bay Meadows, Golden Gate Fields and assorted fair meets. But he has some remarkable accomplishments, no matter his level of competition. Consider this: the 39-year-old native of Vancouver, B.C. is a 16-time riding champion at Golden Gate and has 18 titles at Bay Meadows. Baze, who rode in Southern California from 1988-1991, has won the riding crown at every major Northern California meet at which he�s competed since the 1980-81 Bay Meadows season. He rides so well on that circuit, one insider feels Baze intimidates his fellow riders merely by stepping onto the track.

And it�s not news when Baze and Hollendorfer team up for a victory. It�s news when they pay more than even money. Hollendorfer has won the last 14 Golden Gate training championships, and was well on his way to No. 15 after winning 17 races the first eight days of the current meet.

Davis feels Baze could succeed on major circuits, but why spoil a good thing?

"He�s solid where he is," Davis says. "He likes it there, his family loves it in Northern California, but there are three reasons he could win elsewhere if he elected to: he�s head and shoulders the best rider up there; he�s got the best agent up there in Ray Harris; and he rides for all the best barns. Ray does a good job of picking and choosing.

"Russell rides for Hollendorfer, who would like to have him on every horse he runs. But Harris has other business and makes the right choices. I think Russell is so much the best rider up there, that Ray could even make the wrong choice and Russell would overcome it."

THE HOMESTRETCH: Santa Anita president Cliff Goodrich says all systems are go between the track and the Nevada Pari-Mutuel Association. Santa Anita will send its simulcast signal to Nevada casinos when the Arcadia track opens on Dec. 26. When asked if there was any truth to talk that Santa Anita would not discuss renewal of a new contract unless the NPMA�s pending litigation against Santa Anita (for not sending its signal due to a contract dispute last winter) is dropped, Goodrich said not so. "Basically, the way we�re looking at it is that the contract that started with Del Mar this summer applies to all tracks. As far as going backwards, I think there�s perhaps still a need on Nevada�s part as to how it will be dealt with, but it will be dealt with as something that happened in the past, and not something we�re dealing with in the future. In other words, from our perspective, this upcoming contract has nothing to do with what happened last year." . . . Agent Jim Pegram says Pincay isn�t the only jock having a tough time getting mounts in Southern California. "There�s only so many horses, you�ve got Hall of Fame riders, and five, six and seven-horse fields," explains Pegram, who handles business for David Flores and Rene Douglas. "An agent may have a jockey trainers know can ride, but the rider still is fifth or sixth on the list. It�s just tough. It doesn�t take a mathematical genius to realize that. I�ve got Douglas, who won the Belmont two years ago, and he�s averaging two mounts a day." . . . Richard Mandella on the new format that will allow trainers and owners to pick their post positions for the Kentucky Derby and Preakness: "It should make it more interesting," said Mandella of the traditional blind draw that will be held to establish a selection order, then a horse�s owner and trainer will choose their preferred post position from among those still available. The process will be similar to professional sports teams selecting what they believe to be the best player available when their turn comes up in the league�s amateur draft. Not that post positions have mattered in the past: Wayne Lukas won his three Derbies from posts 11 (Winning Colors), 16 (Thunder Gulch) and 15 (Grindstone). "And," added Mandella, "Ferdinand wouldn�t have picked No. 1. I�m afraid it will expose how little trainers really know."

Laffit Pincay Jr. will visit South America next week to try to add to his win total. The native of Panama has been invited to participate in a riding competition at Valparaiso race track in Lima, Peru, and will leave on Sunday (Dec. 7).

"Riders from several countries have been invited, including Alex Solis," Pincay said. "I�m looking forward to it."