GOLDEN GLIMPSES - DERBY NOTES

BAFFERT LISTS ELITE EIGHT IN TOUGH KENTUCKY DERBY

Bob Baffert, who missed winning the Kentucky Derby by a nose with Cavonnier last year, is back at Churchill Downs for another crack at the Run for the Roses with Silver Charm, one of the West's leading contenders. Here is Baffert's Derby analysis:

"I was impressed by all of them," he said, referring to Captain Bodgit, Pulpit and Crypto Star, winners of the final major Derby prep races -- the Wood Memorial, the Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. "All the good horses ran like they were supposed to. There were no surprises.

"Captain Bodgit looked really good. I liked him and I loved Crypto Star. I thought the Arkansas Derby was the toughest of all the preps.

"This is a tougher Derby than last year. I think the winner depends on who runs his best on race day. They're pretty evenly matched. There are eight top horses -- Captain Bodgit, Pulpit, Crypto Star, Phantom on Tour, Accelerator, Concerto, Silver Charm and Free House. The rest, unless they had some problems I didn't see, I wouldn't consider."

Asked about Pacificbounty, who "hung" while finishing third, beaten a length in the Arkansas Derby, Baffert said:" When a horse hangs, it means he doesn't want to go that far. I found that out the hard way."

That doesn't necessarily stop horsemen from having their logic blinded by Derby Fever.

"I was talking with Bobby Frankel," Baffert said, "and he was telling me, 'There's nothin' out there, there's nothin', nothin'!'

"I said, 'Bob, you don't know. You don't have a 3-year-old.' Then he goes and runs Activist, who just broke his maiden, back in nine days against Captain Bodgit. If anybody else had done that, Frankel would have said he's crazy. But Bobby got super fever. This bunch is tough, tougher than last year. Any time any of these 3-year-olds wins, it means he's a very good horse. The horses that ran one-two in the Wood, the Blue Grass and the Arkansas Derby are outstanding.

"Frankel found out. He got the fever and ran Activist (in the Wood, where he finished fifth, beaten more than seven lengths). This bunch is very evenly matched, and everybody seems to be waiting for a super horse like Cigar to emerge. Cigar was like many (ordinary horses) until they put him on the shelf and brought him back. Then he was the king.

"You put one of these 3-year-olds on hold and don't run him until he's five, he'll run like Cigar. That's the way it works. We run our 3-year-olds so hard, so early, they're cooked. The Derby cooks 'em."

No question, the attrition rate is high. Just start with Grindstone and Cavonnier, who ran one-two last year, and work back. But to most horsemen, a once-in-a-lifetime chance to win the world's greatest race is worth the risk.

Other Derby picks:

GONCALINO ALMEIDA: It's an open race. Silver Charm and Pulpit are the ones to beat, but Alex's horse (Captain Bodgit) is getting better and better.

PAUL ATKINSON: Captain Bodgit. He didn't beat much, but I like the way he did it.

COREY BLACK: I like the way Captain Bodgit's running. He's very handy. He can come from behind, but he's not a plodder. He's very quick when Alex asks him to respond, and that helps in a race like the Derby, where you can run into traffic problems.

BRICE BLANC: Captain Bodgit. He was impressive in the Wood. It would be nice for Alex, too.

RANDY BRADSHAW: Crypto Star. He can get the mile-and-a-quarter, he's a strong closer and there's enough pace.

DAVID BERNSTEIN: Silver Charm. He has tactical speed and should get a good position. I like Captain Bodgit, but sometimes horses coming from way back in the Derby don't get there.

VINCE BRUUN, Southern California Handicapper for Daily Racing Form: Silver Charm. He has tactical speed, he runs his race every time, he's still improving and he's bred to run all day long.

JERRY DUTTON: Pulpit. He does everything pretty easy and I don't think the added distance will hurt him.

RON ELLIS: Free House. He's running good and he's been pulling himself up, so he hasn't been all-out. Plus, he's a Cal-bred!

MIKE HARRINGTON: Silver Charm.

BOB HESS JR.: Free House is classy and only does what he has to in order to win. He hasn't wasted any effort. Plus, I like the way (David) Flores is going. He's hot. Captain Bodgit looks tough, but I'm going for a price.

CRAIG LEWIS: I think it's pretty wide open. Half-a-dozen horses are bona fide contenders, so it should be a good race. Silver Charm and Free House are both very live and difficult to separate. Captain Bodgit and Pulpit have done everything they've been asked. It's just difficult to assess the difference in competition between both coasts.

DICK MANDELLA: Pulpit, Captain Bodgit and Crypto Star. Pulpit looks like he's an extremely gifted colt.

MARTIN PANZA, racing secretary, Hollywood Park: Pulpit.

MARTIN PEDROZA: I'm rooting for the local guys. I always stay with the people from here. I don't want to root for just one, but all of 'em.

JOHN SADLER: Silver Charm. He's tactical enough to be lying in the right spot.

JENINE SAHADI: Free House, because I'm rooting for Trudy (McCaffery) and John (Toffan) and Smokester (sire of the California-bred Free House).

BILL SHOEMAKER: Captain Bodgit. He runs as strong at the end as he does at the beginning.

CLIFF SISE JR.: Captain Bodgit, but I'm rooting for Flores and/or Baffert.

DANNY SORENSON: They've been trading punches, so far. It's a wide open race. They're shipping in, it's a different surface, there's no standout and it's a competitive race. That's good for racing. I don't have a favorite of my own, but I'd like to see a California horse win. Most of all, I'd like to see an excellent Derby.

OCTAVIO VERGARA: I'd like to see Alex win it. He deserves it. He had a good year and he's worked hard to get where he is.

GARY YOUNG, professional clocker: Silver Charm. I like the way he came out of the Santa Anita Derby. He went six furlongs in Kentucky in 1:12 and change and he's not a good work horse. Anything under 1:13 on that track is a super work. I respect Captain Bodgit, Pulpit and Accelerator, but I like Silver Charm.

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