In our last edition (HH No. 8) we promised to remind readers of our "efficiency scale" and show how it can be applied to our current topic. Actually this scale (discussed in HH No. 5) was no more than a standard one could use to gauge the overall ability of a jockey or trainer.

We mentioned further that similar evaluations could be used in the analysis of statistics i.e., the breaking down of raw figures into more meaningful data. So - with that preamble let’s get down to business and find out what we’re actually talking about.

I recently had occasion to review some Equibase stats (http://www.equibase.com) given for the January 1st through May 2nd, 1999 Aqueduct meeting. I thought that an analysis of these raw figures might prove enlightening.

Juan Serey, for example, was the trainer with most wins; 32/147 = 21%, and 61/147 placed. His place horses nearly equalled the number of his wins. This is excellent, particularly when one considers the number of horses involved. It also indicates that Serey’s entries should be given serious consideration when an exacta key, or place bet is contemplated.

On the other hand Dick Dutrow, Jr. was the leading trainer, percentagewise, with 17 /50 wins = 34%. This is pretty darn good, but the question arises could this ratio be maintained if he had run the number of horses Serey ran? The point being that a trainer's or jockey’s volume should be considered when his or her record is being evaluated.

Dutrow’s record is particularly interesting inasmuch as it shows that only three additional horses finished second, bringing his place showing up to 20/50 equaling only a 40% second-place finish average. This is very low. It represents only about 15% of his win average. Compare to Serey’s 41% place average which is 93% of his win average. Dutrow’s place average is so low in fact that we suspect it might be the effect of a typographical error. However, assuming it to be correct, ask yourself which trainer’s horses would give you your best shot when used as a key in an exacta?

There’s also another way to evaluate raw stats as frequently presented in various racing publications. The Running Horse, for example, gives NATIONAL trainer-jockey stats for all of 1998. But, let’s stick to our Equibase Aqueduct figures. There were 20 trainers listed. Combined they entered 1,726 horses and won with 328. This is an overall average of 19% which now provides a valid standard by which we can reasonably judge an individual’s performance. However, keep in mind that VOLUME is an important influence. Trainer A who runs 400 horses and scores with 16% might well be evincing a performance record superior to Trainer B who runs only 20 horses and wins with 25%.

It looks as if we’ve run out of space at this point, so we’ll continue this topic in our next edition.

( Don’t miss No. 10 of Handicapping Hints due on or about August 1st)

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