T he June 1st edition (No. Six) of Handicapping Hints subjected favorites, selected by the Racing Form’s Andy Beyer’s speed figures, to close scrutiny and determined they had merit. Overall they produced more winners and showed less loss than favorites generally.

In the following we’ll compare the public choices that were NOT Beyer’s selections with the results achieved by the group representing the Beyer-selected favorites. First, however, let’s see how our overall group of 1,255 favorites (used for this analysis) did. This will provide a reasonable standard for evaluating the performance of either of its two components i.e., by comparing its stats with those of the overall group.

These favorite figures are much superior to those of favorites generally. This could be accounted for by the relatively few races used for this test OR possibly could be attributed to fact that TURF races were not included. Nonetheless they provide us with a standard for comparing the performance of the two units that comprised these overall statistics.

It was previously noted that the Beyer favorites, with a 40% win average, and only a 13% flat bet loss was good compared to results generally achieved by the public’s post-time choices (approximately 34% wins and a l6% loss). Let’s now look at the second half of our larger group; the non-Beyer favorites. In other words let’s see how the public fared when left to its own devices without being influenced by the published speed ratings. We’ll see how the non-Beyer favorites fared when compared with the Beyer post-time choices.

The 32% win average is quite a bit below the 40% Beyer success rate, but the average win mutuel payoff of $5.11 more than compensates. Beyer favorites showed a 13% flat win bet loss.

Our conclusion would be that the Beyer figures performed well percentagewise, but appear to be over bet by the public. Although, at a 40% win rate they could well be preferred favorites to use as keys in exactas.

Two factors may have had an influence on the results obtained:

In retrospect we realize our survey would have been improved had we eliminated those races wherein there were top-rated ties. Additionally, when opportunity affords we’d like to check out the performance stats for turf races. Do favorites in these events perform so poorly that they drag down the overall win percentages?

This is a great game. One no sooner resolves one question than another rears its ugly head.

Don’t miss HANDICAPPING HINTS NO. 8 due on or about July 1st

Visit the How To Win At Thoroughbred Racing Web site