HANDICAPPING HINTS #18
by
Robert V. Rowe

 

Dec. 1, 1999

Index
 

 

Over the years your scribe has tried frequently and valiantly to make the point that playing long shots as a steady diet is akin to committing financial harikari.This is not to say that one should confine play only to favorites or short-priced horses. There are many occasions when a 5/1 or 7/1 shot is a good play.

However, if you keep records and note that your betting choices are AVERAGING 9/2 or better I strongly suggest reviewing your handicapping procedures because you'll be bucking a losing game.

It is this race player’s opinion, generally speaking, that the favorite is the key to successful handicapping. There are "good" and "bad" favorites. If one can learn to differentiate between the two s/he is well on the way to racing profits. This applies whether one is a devotee of straight betting or is hooked on exactas. The favorite remains the key inasmuch as one can select against a bad favorite, and either play or lay off a race with a legitimate favorite.

Personally I wouldn’t consider an exacta or making an exacta box without using the chalk as a key ingredient. I’d rather pass the race. The percentages are too great that the favorite will run either first or second (more than 50% of the time). Example: If I chose to invest $12 on an exacta race it would be as follows:

Favorite boxed with my second, third and fourth choices. On a $2.00 mutuel basis this would involve three boxes at a total cost of twelve dollars.

The foregoing approach as opposed to the following option: Example: A 3-horse box that combines Horse A with Favorite. Horse B with Favorite. And Horse A combined with B. This at a cost of the same twelve dollars. Sure! There will be rare occasions when A and B will combine for a good priced payoff, and you’ll kick yourself for not having boxed them. But - if you keep records you’ll find you’re still far ahead of the game by employing our first strategy. Not only that but you’ll be cashing more bets. And - that's always good for morale. No one should expect to cash every bet. Why try?

Please understand, we’re talking about SELECTIVE favorites as keys, not indiscriminate play. If a favorite looks weak don’t play an exacta. Your best bet is a straight play win or place against the chalk. If the favorites is really weak a solid place bet on your selection could prove the bargain of the day. This , of course, only when convinced the favorite is such a poor public choice that s/he probably won’t even get second.

The problem here is that most selectors rely on their opinion to differentiate between good and bad favorites. In our next issue we’ll suggest a couple of ways to OBJECTIVELY determine which favorites should be given serious consideration, and which can reasonably be selected against.

(No. 19 of HANDICAPPING HINTS should appear on or about December 15th)

 

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