Number 11 of HH pointed out that board watching for "bet downs" could be of considerable help as a handicapping aid, but should not be used as a sole determining factor. It’s a useful tool but has its negative as well as positive aspects.

An example of a negative aspect would be the following: You handicap a race and determine that Horse A should wind up as either the first or, at worst, a strong second choice. To your surprise, and possible delight it gets little play and near post time it’s an ice-cold third choice. What to do? Should you congratulate yourself on finding a sleeper, or – take another look and try to determine WHY Horse A is not getting what you consider to be its legitimate amount of mutuel play?

Your scribe’s reaction would be to either lay off the race or look elsewhere for a potential winner. To do otherwise would strike me as being egotistical. I’d be saying in effect that I think I’m more astute than 99% of all other handicappers. Keep in mind that the records of every entrant in every race has been gone over with a fine tooth comb by every sharpie at the track. It’s not likely that I was the only one who spotted this goodthing (?).

This does not imply that longshots should not be considered. But – I am saying that obvious and seemingly legitimate contenders that do not get their proper play are not "sleepers." They are usually horses with a knock against them that is not being reflected in the past performances.

Another type of "play down" to avoid is in races with a heavy favorite involved. Very often money will come in early on an obvious stickout and then its odds will gradually climb. Example: Horse B opens at 3/5 and gradually goes to 4/5, and winds up at even money. Naturally the odds on other contenders will tend to go DOWN. These "downers" are not true "bet" horses. Visualize the mutuel pool as a see saw. If the favorite goes up in the betting other horses will go down and vice versa.

What one should look for ALWAYS are horses that appear to be bucking a normal trend. Example: The favorite goes from 8/5 to 7/5. The third choice who held at 9/2 could be anticipated to go to 5/1 or at best remain at 9/2. Instead it moves down to 4/1. This represents a valid bet down and should be looked at closely. Why is it going against a normal trend? Even if our hypothetical 9/2 shot remained at 9/2 (with heavy play on a favorite) it still would be deserving of a closer look.

In summary we’re suggesting that watching the structure of the odds can be made to pay off IF one knows what to look for. Frequently the play down, that underlies less-obvious horses being bet, emanates from denizens of the backstretch. Keep in mind that every groom, every outrider, every jockey, every trainer and owner has either a family , a good friend, or both and word -- both positive and negative -- spreads quickly at the track. This produces a backstretch type of action, that is usually reflected by multiples of small bets being sent in rather than by splashy big money suddenly showing up.

In closing and at the risk of being redundant your scribe repeats, "Use the mutuel pools as they should be used i.e., as useful adjuncts to one’s own judgment and handicapping ability BUT do not use betting action as a sole means of selection."

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