By ED GOLDEN

No betting favorite has won the Kentucky Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1979.

And the defeat of two odds-on favorites Saturday in prep races for the May 2 race not only clouded the picture of who would win, it blurred any vision of a clear-cut favorite, as well.

Picking the winner would have been tough enough before Saturday, but with 1997 Horse of the Year Favorite Trick suffering his first setback in the Arkansas Derby after nine straight victories, and with now-sidelined Lil’s Lad being overtaken by Halory Hunter in the Blue Grass Stakes despite an uncontested lead and leisurely fractions, the Kentucky Derby will be a wide-open betting race.

No betting choice has won the race since Spectacular Bid, when he was the 3-5 pick. But upon closer scrutiny, horses that should have been favored did win.

The favorite for the 124th Derby likely will be one of two undefeated colts, Indian Charlie or Event of the Year, with Favorite Trick, Real Quiet and Halory Hunter certain to attract their share of support.

The assignment of selecting the favorite ultimately will fall to Churchill Downs morning line oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. But in the opinion of Jeff Tufts, one of the country’s most respected oddsmakers, who makes the program odds for Santa Anita Park, there were at least three winners since The Bid who could have been favored.

"I do believe a tremendous amount will be written about the so-called jinx on the betting favorite, but a couple days ago, I was looking through the Kentucky Derby book, and if you look back at the charts during that long streak of beaten favorites, technically, it’s right, that no favorite has won," Tufts said.

"But one winner was Winning Colors, who was exactly the same price as Private Terms ($3.40-1), but with slightly less money on her. And this was before co-mingled pools. In California, Winning Colors paid $4.40, so if there had been co-mingled pools then, she definitely would have been favored.

"In 1983, Sunny’s Halo won as the second choice (at 5-2), but the favorite was the entry of Marfa, Balboa Native and Total Departure (at $2.40-1). Marfa definitely was the best of those three, and who’s to say that had those three horses not been coupled, Sunny’s Halo wouldn’t have been favored? And in 1984 when Swale won at $3.40-1, Althea and Life’s Magic were favored at $2.80-1. Althea would have been the shorter price of those two, but theoretically, had they been split, Swale might have been favored. In each of those instances, Winning Colors, Sunny’s Halo and Swale could have been favored.

"So statistically, it’s a long streak of losing favorites. But if you try to infer from that streak that horses that were well-supported and looked logical going in have not done well, that would not be correct.

"Personally, I don’t believe in jinxes, so in the case of the Kentucky Derby, it wouldn’t bother me at all if I were an owner or a trainer and had a horse that was favored to win the race.

"Being unbeaten and being trained by Bob Baffert obviously will gain Indian Charlie considerable backing," Tufts said. "But so will Event of the Year. And Favorite Trick’s not to be abandoned. I couldn’t single any one of those horses out and say he’s going to be the favorite.

"But in a race like the Kentucky Derby, discussion about which horse will be favored, and the so-called jinx, is way over-rated and I don’t think it really matters that much . . . There’s so much publicity on the race, and bettors as a whole are becoming so much more sophisticated and realizing horses in that race are doing something they’ve never done before -- running a mile and a quarter.

"Also, many horses running in the Derby are coming out of races with small fields, and suddenly they’re running in field with 12 or 14 horses. There are so many uncertainties that it’s foolish to take a short price. There have been some notable exceptions, like Arazi (9-10 favorite who ran eighth in 1992) and Easy Goer (4-5 favorite who was second to Sunday Silence in 1989). Both horses received a tremendous amount of publicity over an extended period of time.

"In Arazi’s case, A.P. Indy was scratched the day of the race. In Easy Goer’s case, once you got past Sunday Silence, there wasn’t much to bet on. There will be a lot of discussion over the next few weeks as to which horse will be favored, and Battaglia will have to make one horse the favorite, but I really don’t think it matters all that much.

"For example, Prairie Bayou was almost 9-2 ($4.40-1 favorite when he ran second to Sea Hero in 1993). If a horse goes off at 4-1, with a takeout, you’re talking about a horse that has a little over 15 percent of the money in the win pool bet on him. That means that 85 percent is bet against the horse. So when the horse loses, it can’t really be called an upset.

"The same is really true of an 8-5 shot. An 8-5 shot has roughly one-third of the win pool money bet on him. That means 66 percent is bet against the horse. For every dollar bet on the horse that he’s going to win, there’s $2 bet that he’s going to lose. So even an 8-5 shot losing, from that point of view, is not an upset.

"Indian Charlie could be favored, and he’s going to get a lot of publicity. But with the exception of his second race at Santa Anita, where he had to take back from inside of a horse and go around, he’s never been exposed to dirt in his face. He’s never been stuck between horses and in traffic. So if there’s a large field in the Derby, he’s looking at a totally different experience from what he’s been used to. That doesn’t mean he can’t win. But in terms of what he’s been faced with, this is a major, major step. But the same is true for Event of the Year. He’s had more experience getting dirt in his face, but each horse has had only four races and has been competing in small fields.

"As far as which horse will be favored, right now it looks like it’s between Indian Charlie and Event of the Year. But Favorite Trick will still be well supported, and Halory Hunter will certainly get some play, although it’s not likely he’ll be favored. Either way, it will be a good betting race again."

THE HOMESTRETCH: Indian Charlie and Real Quiet had their final Santa Anita preps Monday morning before shipping to Churchill Downs on Wednesday. "They both went easy halves and came back great," Baffert said. "They’re ready." That’s more than can be said for Lil’s Lad, who will miss the Derby due to a chipped bone in his left front ankle. Trainer Neil Howard thinks the injury will sideline the speedy colt until August or September. Trainer Bill Mott, meanwhile, was still undecided on Derby plans for Favorite Trick. "We need some time to get our thoughts together. We’re going to proceed as though we’re running in the Derby." . . . Baffert’s barn keeps gaining in strength. The most recent addition is Tim Yakteen, Charlie Whittingham’s right-hand man the past eight years. Yakteen, 33, will oversee the white-haired trainer’s operation at Hollywood Park. Yakteen previously worked for Baffert when he trained quarter horses at Los Alamitos . . . Richard Mandella has received 10 stalls for the Churchill Downs meet that starts April 25 and he hopes to operate a 20-horse string this summer at Saratoga.