Four score and seven years from now, our children on this continent may not know a nation conceived of horse racing and dedicated to the proposition that all tracks will present a sequel.
As a new year nears the finish line and the 21st century looms on the homestretch, the future of racing as our generations knew and loved it could grow and flourish, or, its demise may be imminent.
Depending on the source, views on racing's future range from optimistic to pessimistic to realistic.
Two Hall of Fame trainers have disparaging opinions, while a young, innovative racing secretary at one of the world's premier tracks holds a more moderate outlook.
"Racing's gonna be around a long time," said Jack Van Berg, whose family name has been synonymous with the game for more than two generations. The 59-year-old Nebraskan was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1985. His late father, the legendary Marion (M.H.) Van Berg, was inducted in 1970.
"Even though (casino) gambling and racing might have to be combined, it's gonna be around. Nothing's gonna replace horse racing. It's a known thing that people want to see the better horses run and I think if they combine a little gambling with racing, where you have big purses, you'regonna get a lot better horses . . .
"Simulcasting was the savior of racing, for the simple reason that people can't take a day off and come to the races during the week. It's hard. So simulcasting has been good. Now people go to work, do their job, and still have time to get over to the races (at a convenient simulcast facility).
"Look at what Kentucky's done. They do simulcasting right, and look at the size of their purses. It's the thing of the future. Racing has to wake up and realize its got competition, so it's got to take care of their people. You've got to take care of the fans. You have to take care of the little guy . . . whenever you don't take care of the little people, whatever business you're in, you're going to be out of business, believe what I'm tellin' ya."
When it comes to telling it like it is, Bobby Frankel makes Howard Cosell seem like a defense lawyer. Elected to the Hall of Fame this year, the 54-year-old Brooklyn native is sometimes brash, often outspoken but always respected as a horseman. His principal client is Juddmonte Farms, an internationally dominant racing force headed by Prince Khalid Abdullah, a member of the ruling family of Saudi Arabia.
"I'm not very optimistic," Frankel said. "It's a shame. I hate to be like this, but just seeing things being done, like at Santa Anita, they way they put in the turf course and management messin' up left and right all the time, I just don't see there's a real great future in racing right now, until the people that run these race tracks get people that know what they're doing to run these race tracks properly."
Can you be more specific?
"I think the racing offices' ideas are going backwards. I don't like the idea of shortening their 2-year-old races to a quarter-mile. I think you need some innovative people in there to make good decisions, you know?
"I think the future of racing in this country, like most people is in turf racing. That's what excites most everybody. I'm just talking about California now. I can't talk for the rest of the country.
Like Churchill Downs in Kentucky, they're doing well. The purses are up and everything's good. I think the only thing that will save them (California) will be some phone betting, or something like that."
Frankel's criticism does not appear to be selfish. Through Nov. 26, his stable ranked fifth nationally in money won with $5,398,943. Juddmonte was second in money won nationally last year with more than $4.3 million. Frankel said he presently has some 60 horses in training in Southern California most of them grass specialists -- with more at the ready.
"Personally, I'm doing well," Frankel said, "but I'm going to go into a meet now (Santa Anita, which begins an 87-day session on Dec. 26) where there might not be grass racing (Santa Anita's new, $2.3 million turf course has been late in maturing, resulting in limited grass racing duringthe recent Oak Tree meeting). I won only three races at Oak Tree because there was no (limited) grass racing. I've won seven here (at Hollywood Park through Dec. 3) already, and six of them have been on the grass.
"I train for one of the two or three biggest owners in California, and if they leave town, racing's gonna be in bad shape out here. I think, personally, Santa Anita ought to lose their dates until they straighten out their business. I think they're misrepresenting themselves. Look at how many outfits have left California -- Team Valor, Elmendorf, Mark Hennig, Chris Speckert --even Lukas took a string to Kentucky. If Juddmonte leaves, it's all over."
If racing survives and thrives, it will be in part to imaginative men like Martin Panza, 32-year-old racing secretary at Hollywood Park. It was Panza, with support from Hollywood Park Chairman of the Board and CEO R.D. Hubbard, who lured soon-to-be 1995 Horse of the Year Cigar from the East Coast to come to California this summer where he won the Hollywood Gold Cup on July 2.
"I have to think California would seem to be slow to react to things," Panza said, "slow to make changes, and I think with Kentucky and New York getting (tax) breaks and being able to raise their purses, that the next couple of years here, California will get some things done.
"I look at California as a sleeping giant. We're paying the most of any other state in license fees, so there's a lot of room for growth for us. We handle the most of any other racing jurisdiction, and with the license fees reduced, you could see a 50 percent increase in the pursemoney. And if that happens, then racing here becomes huge.
"I mean, owners can't afford not to race here, so I feel pretty good about what's going to happen over the next couple years. Something has to happen, and because we're in that situation, because we've got our backs up against the wall, I think it will."
The profusion of racing has depleted the bloodlines on virtually all circuits, but Panza feels the quality is stable in Southern California.
"I think so, day in and day out, because if you look at Southern California (racing), we're just one great big meet. We never stop. All year long, it's either five days a week, or, if you look at the period between Del Mar and the end of Pomona (Fairplex Park, a time frame from late July through early October), we have seven dark days in 2 1/2 months. The rest of the year, we're five days a week, so we're like one great big meet out here, so we do go through horses.
"But day in and day out, there's no other circuit in the world that can compete with that." Santa Anita's decision to cut two days from its winter/spring meet is a step in the right direction, albeit it a tiny one, Panza believes.
"It would be nice to see each meet cut back a little bit on the race days," said Panza, a native Arizonan. "It would help, that's for sure. That's not up to me though. I wish it was, but it's not.
"But the TOC (Thoroughbred Owners of California) is working to get some changes done at some of these meets, and I think we recognize it now. I think it's just a matter of all associations sitting down and trying to figure out what's going to be fair to everybody. You look at the East Coast, most of those horses are in South Carolina or are on their way down to Florida. They're getting some time off. In Kentucky, it's the same sort of deal."
Hopefully, the powers that be will do right, and racing of the people, by the people and for the people shall not perish from the earth.
The Running Horse (http://www.isd1.com/alauck)