Good ideas are like fine wine: if nurtured, they mellow and mature with age. In so doing, applications for that good idea are found that were not available originally. Given this premise, let me first review and then expand upon a spot play that was first presented to AMERICAN TURF MONTHLY readers a little more than 10 years ago in the January, 1983 issue.
In that original article I noted: "...the best second-race indicators that will find contenders are the Daily Double prices." The same now holds true for late Daily Doubles where offered. Last race triples and exactas can also be profitably bet based on potential late double payoffs.
The methodology hasn't changed. After the first half of the Daily Double has been run, the Daily Double payoffs are posted for each horse in the second leg of the wager. When these possible Daily Double prices are announced, write the horse's price to the right of the horse's name on the official program. Then divide that double payoff by the horse's morning line program odds.
If the favorite has won the first race, you will usually have a low double multiple number. For example, on April 16, 1993 at Yakima Meadows, the 5-2 favorite, Ms Hunky Dorie, won the first trace. The possible double prices on horses in the second race ranged from $21.40 on the morning line favorite, Jim's Good Ol' Boy, to $295.60 on a 45-1 toss-out, Arrozac. According to our method, the rating for Jim's Good Ol' Boy was a seven (i.e., morning line odds of 3-1 or three divided into a possible double price of $21.40) while Arrozac's rating was 15 (morning line odds of 20-1 divided into a possible daily double price of $295.60.
However, when a longshot like Three By Seven wins the first race at 12-1 odds, as was the case on September 6, 1993, the double multiple ratings will be much higher. The low rating was Blind Investment's rating of 30 (morning line odds of four divided into a possible double price of $119.80) while the high rating was One More Stir's 64 (morning line odds of 20 divided into a possible double price of $1283.
In 1983, the only recommended play in the second leg of the double was a win wager. The 59-race workout of results back then had 26 winners (44 percent average) that paid $253.90. The ROI was 215 percent. The 95-race workout of results had 38 winners (40 percent) that paid $343.40. The ROI was 180 percent.
Several years ago, exactas were added to all races. During 1992 at Longacres, if the low-rated horse in the second leg of the double had been played in the exacta with the post-time favorite or with the second favorite if the low-rated horse was itself the favorite, 19 exacta bets (20 percent) from 95 plays would have been cashed, resulting in an average exacta win mutuel of $32.00. The ROI was 321 percent based on a return of $610.60 from the 19 exacta bet wins. A total of $190 was invested.
Now, the preferred play is to bet equal amounts to win and on the exacta. Betting peaks and valleys are smoothed out. On a daily basis, a profit was made 40 percent of the time. Ninety-five $4.00 bets ($2.00 to win and a $2.00 exacta) cost $380.00 and returned $954.00. The ROI was 251 percent. Now let's look at several examples in order to see just how this spot play can be applied.
On Opening Day at Longacres in 1992, trainer Ron Glatt had horses entered in both ends of the Daily Double (for a trainer pattern spot play for Daily Double action, see AMERICAN TURF MONTHLY, February 1979). In the first race, Proud Drou, a three-year-old maiden first-time starter, was bet down from his morning line odds of 10-1 to 7-1. His four workouts evenly spaced over three weeks set him up for a nice off-the-pace win. Possible double prices on horses in the second leg of the Daily Double ranged from $77.80 on the favorite, Senorita Mas Fina, to $669.00 on an impossible longshot, Ice Hill Miss. Glatt's horse, Bypassbobby, easily had the low rating of 17 based on her morning line odds of 9-2 and her possible double price of $79.60. Two recent races at Golden Gate gave her a fitness edge that allowed her to stalk and eventually run down the favorite, Senorita Mas Fina. The exacta with the third favorite back to the favorite paid $41.20.
A good mid-season example occurred on July 31. Seattle Bagman won the first race as the 3-1 second favorite. The second race was for four-year-olds and up, non-winners of two, at a 1-1/8 miles. Based on past performance information in the Daily Racing Form, the race was impossible to handicap. However, two horses had possible double prices that gave them low numbers. The 12-1 morning line Mr. Too O'Clock had a 7.48 rating and Steelin Tom at 5-1 had a 7.72 rating. Both horses came from well off the early pace to race in tandem down the stretch, with Mr. Too O'Clock out-finishing Steelin Tom by a head. He paid $18.60 to win. The exacta returned $81.20. In an example like this, with the opportunity for good exacta price no matter which horse wins, I would box the exacta at a cost of $4.00.
Labor Day afforded a late-season winner. Double Absolute had the low rating of 4.52 based on her 5-1 morning line and her $22.60 possible double payoff. The closest contenders to her rating were a two horses with six ratings. She was bet down to favorite's status at 4-1 while the morning line favorite, Quick Surprise, was held at 7-2. Double Absolute took the lead on the stretch turn and won by two lengths while Quick Surprise closed strongly for the place. The win was worth $8.20 while the exacta, favorite to second favorite, paid a surprising $31.20. Every day should be a holiday at the race track!
For the astute handicapper, exotic wagering in all races had greatly increased profit opportunities. Are you cashing in on these opportunities or are you betting the same way(s) you wagered 10 years ago?
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